As climate change continues to reshape the UK’s landscapes, Hillier Nurseries remains committed to a sustainability-driven, science-led approach to tree production and landscape resilience. Central to this work is a focus on identifying, trialling and promoting climate-resilient tree species that can thrive under future environmental conditions.

This research has been developed in partnership with Urban Plant Lab, combining horticultural expertise with evidence-based scientific assessment.

The Suitability of Important Landscape Trees to UK Cities Report 2026 examines how widely used landscape tree species may align with projected future climate conditions across UK cities.

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Why Future Climate Suitability Matters

Across the UK, landscapes are changing. Cities are warming, rainfall patterns are shifting, and the conditions in which trees grow are becoming less predictable. A tree planted today may still be growing well into the next century, long after the climate in which it was selected has changed.

Before commissioning the research, Hillier consulted landscape architects, designers, contractors and local authorities to understand what was needed to support climate-aware tree selection.

The response was clear:

  • 89% believe climate change will have a significant long-term impact on the tree industry.
  • 80% expect nurseries to offer more climate-adapted species.
  • 71% want scientific recommendations for species suited to future conditions.

Key Barriers Identified

  • Availability of suitable species
  • Lack of information
  • Customer preferences

This feedback informed Hillier’s decision to commission Urban Plant Lab to assess which widely used landscape tree species are likely to remain suitable under future climate conditions.

How Future Suitability Was Assessed

Hillier partnered with Urban Plant Lab, a not-for-profit research organisation dedicated to improving plant selection and establishment in urban environments.

The assessment combined three complementary approaches:

Climate Modelling

High-resolution CHELSA climate data using the SSP3 scenario was used to assess:

  • Mean Temperature of the Growing Season (MTGS)
  • Climatic Moisture Index (CMI)

Species Distribution Modelling

Global occurrence records were analysed to define each species’ climatic envelope. UK city projections for baseline conditions, 2050 and 2090 were then compared against these envelopes to assess alignment.

Functional Traits

Three traits linked to stress tolerance were assessed:

  • Leaf Dry Matter Content
  • Wood Density
  • Turgor Loss Point

Climate suitability and trait performance were then combined into a composite score, producing outcome statements for each species.

What the Future Holds for UK Landscape Trees

The findings show a varied picture.

Many species continue to align well with projected future conditions, while others show reduced suitability in specific regions.

Species Remaining Suitable Across Much of the UK

Northern and western cities show more modest climatic shifts, meaning many current planting choices remain appropriate.

Species with broad climatic envelopes or strong stress-tolerance traits that continue to perform well include:

  • Liquidambar styraciflua
  • Platanus × hispanica
  • Pyrus calleryana
Liquidambar Worplesdon trees growing in field

Greater Pressure in South East England

Cities such as London, Cambridge, Oxford, Norwich and Canterbury are projected to experience warmer growing seasons and lower moisture availability, increasing pressure on some species.

Species Showing Reduced Suitability in Some Areas

Four native species show lower alignment with projected conditions in parts of the south east by 2090:

  • Betula pendula
  • Prunus avium
  • Tilia cordata
  • Tilia platyphyllos

These species remain widely suitable across most of the UK but may require more thoughtful placement and management in the south east.

Explore the Full Research

The full Suitability of Important Landscape Trees to UK Cities Report 2026 provides detailed findings, species-level outcomes and city-specific projections.

Read the report below to explore the research in full or download it to have with you wherever you need it.

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Looking Ahead

Trees are planted with the future in mind. Understanding how species may respond to changing climatic conditions can help support informed, long-term decisions for urban forestry, landscape design and conservation.